What sea level rise will look like in cities that have hosted climate summits（原文后附双语）

By Rachel Ramirez, CNN

Updated 10:44 PM EST, Sun December 3, 2023

As global leaders and delegates gather in Dubai for the annual UN climate summit, a new analysis shows how the host cities of previous summits could be inundated — if not entirely submerged — by rising ocean waters.

The relentless rise of planet-warming pollution has already resulted in severe droughts, deadly floods and rapid melting of glaciers and ice around the world. And scientists say the steady climb of global sea level will continue for many decades as temperatures crank higher.

The analysis from Climate Central, a nonprofit climate research group, illustrates the risk if countries fail to halt the planet’s precipitous warming trend. A recent UN report showed the world is currently on track to warm up to 2.9 degrees.

Using peer-reviewed sea level rise projections and local elevation from Climate Central’s models, the findings show compelling visuals that paint a stark contrast between the world as we know it and our high-tide future, if the planet warms to 3 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

What sea-level rise could look like at the Burj Khalifa in Dubai, United Arab Emirates.

What sea-level rise could look like at the Fortaleza del Real Felipe in Lima, Peru.

“Decisions made at COP28 will shape the long-term future of Earth’s coast cities, including Dubai,” said Benjamin Strauss, chief scientist and CEO of Climate Central.

Climate scientists have reported the world is around 1.2 degrees Celsius warmer than pre-industrial levels, and it’s on track to breach 1.5 degrees of warming in the coming years — a critical threshold beyond which scientists say humans and ecosystems will struggle to adapt.

In 2015, at COP21 in Paris, more than 190 countries approved the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius, but preferably to 1.5 degrees.

What sea-level rise could look like at the Durban City Hall in Durban, South Africa.

The world’s current trajectory of up to 2.9 degrees could be unlivable for coastal communities, low-lying countries and small island states around the world.

“The survival of these places and their heritage will depend on whether the government and industry leaders can agree to cut carbon pollution sharply enough and fast enough to limit global warming to 1.5 Celsius degrees,” Strauss said.

2023 is already set to be the hottest year on record, according to a report released Thursday by the World Meteorological Organization. Each month from June through October set new global monthly temperatures records by wide margins, while ocean temperatures also hit record highs.

What sea-level rise could look like at Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj Vastu Sangrahalaya in Mumbai, India.

These blistering global temperatures are causing glaciers and ice sheets to melt at alarming rates, which adds a significant amount of water to Earth’s oceans. Even Antarctica, the most isolated continent on the planet, is seeing unprecedented melting events. The melting of some large glaciers is now potentially unavoidable and could pose devastating implications for sea level rise globally.

Roughly 385 million people currently live in areas that will be eventually inundated by ocean water at high tide, even if planet-warming pollution is drastically reduced, according to Climate Central.

If we limit warming to 1.5 degrees, sea level rise would still affect land inhabited by 510 million people today. But if the planet breaches 3 degrees, the high-tide line could encroach above land where more than 800 million people live, a recent study found.

What sea-level rise could look like at the Christiansborg Palace in Copenhagen, Denmark.

But while these scenarios could be centuries away, scientists say with every fraction of a degree of warming, the consequences of climate change worsen.

At COP28, global leaders will discuss how to ramp down planet-warming fossil fuels to prevent the increasing likelihood of an underwater future. This year’s climate talks will also be the first time countries will be negotiating with a new scorecard showing how seriously off-track they are on their climate targets — and how the window to slash climate pollution is “rapidly narrowing.”

What sea level rise will look like in cities that have hosted climate summits

如果海平面上升，这些举办过气候峰会的城市会变成什么样As global leaders and delegates gather in Dubai for the annual UN climate summit, a new analysis shows how the host cities of previous summits could be inundated — if not entirely submerged — by rising ocean waters.

最近全球的领导人和代表们齐聚迪拜参加年度的年度的联合国气候峰会，一份新的研究分析显示了此前的峰会举办城市如何被上升的海水淹掉（如果不是完全淹没的话）。

The relentless rise of planet-warming pollution has already resulted in severe droughts, deadly floods and rapid melting of glaciers and ice around the world. And scientists say the steady climb of global sea level will continue for many decades as temperatures crank higher.

全球变暖不断上升已经造成了严重的干旱、致命的洪灾以及全球冰川和冰雪的快速融化。每一位科学家都称随着气温的不断升高，全球的海平面将会稳步攀升数十年。

The analysis from Climate Central, a nonprofit climate research group, illustrates the risk if countries fail to halt the planet’s precipitous warming trend. A recent UN report showed the world is currently on track to warm up to 2.9 degrees.

这份来自非盈利气候研究组织《气候中心》的分析阐述了如果各国不能阻止全球的急剧变暖趋势将面临的风险。最近一份联合国的报告显示按照目前的趋势，全球将升温2.9°C。

Using peer-reviewed sea level rise projections and local elevation from Climate Central’s models, the findings show compelling visuals that paint a stark contrast between the world as we know it and our high-tide future, if the planet warms to 3 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

利用同行评审的海平面上升预测和《气候中心》模型中的局部海拔，这份报告给出了强烈的视觉效果，我们目前的世界和相比工业化前升温3摄氏度涨潮后的未来世界形成了鲜明的对比。

“Decisions made at COP28 will shape the long-term future of Earth’s coast cities, including Dubai,” said Benjamin Strauss, chief scientist and CEO of Climate Central.

“COP28上做出的决定将决定包括迪拜在内的地球沿海城市的长期未来”，《气候中心》首席科学家兼首席执行官Benjamin Strauss表示。

Climate scientists have reported the world is around 1.2 degrees Celsius warmer than pre-industrial levels, and it’s on track to breach 1.5 degrees of warming in the coming years — a critical threshold beyond which scientists say humans and ecosystems will struggle to adapt.

气候科学家之前报道称全球相比工业化前水平气温上升了大约1.2摄氏度，在未来的几年里将突破1.5摄氏度—一关键的临界点，科学家们称超过这临界点人类和生态系统将会很难适应。

In 2015, at COP21 in Paris, more than 190 countries approved the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius, but preferably to 1.5 degrees.

在2015年巴黎的COP21会议上，超过190个国家同意《巴黎协议》，将全球的升温限制在2摄氏度以下，最好是1.5摄氏度。

The world’s current trajectory of up to 2.9 degrees could be unlivable for coastal communities, low-lying countries and small island states around the world.

目前高达2.9度的升温趋势，将导致世界各地的沿海社区、低洼国家和小岛屿国家不再适合居住。

“The survival of these places and their heritage will depend on whether the government and industry leaders can agree to cut carbon pollution sharply enough and fast enough to limit global warming to 1.5 Celsius degrees,” Strauss said.

“这些地区和遗产能否生存下去取决于政府和业界领导们能否同意足够快速大幅的削减碳排放，将全球变暖限制在1.5摄氏度以下”，Strauss说道。

2023 is already set to be the hottest year on record, according to a report released Thursday by the World Meteorological Organization. Each month from June through October set new global monthly temperatures records by wide margins, while ocean temperatures also hit record highs.

根据世界气象组织周四发布的一份报告，2023年已经成为有记录以来最热的一年。从6月到10月，每个月都创下了新的全球月度气温纪录，同时海洋温度也创下了历史新高。

These blistering global temperatures are causing glaciers and ice sheets to melt at alarming rates, which adds a significant amount of water to Earth’s oceans. Even Antarctica, the most isolated continent on the planet, is seeing unprecedented melting events. The melting of some large glaciers is now potentially unavoidable and could pose devastating implications for sea level rise globally.

这些酷热的全球气温正在导致冰川和冰盖以惊人的速度融化，给地球的海洋增加了大量的水。甚至南极洲，这个地球上最孤立的大陆，也在经历前所未有的融化。一些大型冰山的融化现在已经不太可能避免，这将给全球海平面上升带来毁灭性影响。

Roughly 385 million people currently live in areas that will be eventually inundated by ocean water at high tide, even if planet-warming pollution is drastically reduced, according to Climate Central.

根据《气候中心》，即使地球变暖大大减少，目前约有3.85亿人他们生活的地区最终在高潮水位时会被海水淹没。

If we limit warming to 1.5 degrees, sea level rise would still affect land inhabited by 510 million people today. But if the planet breaches 3 degrees, the high-tide line could encroach above land where more than 800 million people live, a recent study found.

如果我们将升温限制在1.5度以内，海平面上升仍将影响今天5.1亿人居住的土地。而最近的一项研究发现，如果地球升温温度超过3度，高潮水线会侵蚀超过8亿人居住的土地。

But while these scenarios could be centuries away, scientists say with every fraction of a degree of warming, the consequences of climate change worsen.

科学家们表示，尽管这些情况可能还有几个世纪的时间，但气温每升高一点点，气候就会更加恶化。

At COP28, global leaders will discuss how to ramp down planet-warming fossil fuels to prevent the increasing likelihood of an underwater future. This year’s climate talks will also be the first time countries will be negotiating with a new scorecard showing how seriously off-track they are on their climate targets — and how the window to slash climate pollution is “rapidly narrowing.”

在这次COP28上，全球领导人将讨论如何减少导致全球变暖的化石燃料的使用，以防止未来水下世界的可能性增加。今年的气候谈判也将是各国首次用新的记分卡进行谈判，以显示他们偏离气候目标的严重程度，以及削减气候污染的窗口正在“快速缩小”。

"Inundated"和"submerged"的区别：

"Inundated"和"submerged"都表示被水淹没或被水覆盖的意思，但它们在用法和含义上有一些细微的差别。

• "Inundated" 和 "submerged" 都表示一个物体或区域被水淹没。然而，"inundated" 强调的是局部地区被大量水流包围或淹没，通常涉及突然且大规模的水灾。例如，一个地区可能因为洪水而被淹没或被水覆盖。
• "Submerged" 则表示整个物体完全被水覆盖或沉浸其中。它强调的是物体完全被水所包围或沉没在水中，不留任何部分露出水面。

例如，假设有一座建筑物和一片河流。如果建筑物的底部被大量水淹没，但上部仍然露出水面，我们可以说该建筑物部分被inundated（局部被淹没）。而如果整个建筑物被完全覆盖在水下，我们可以说该建筑物submerged（浸没）。

换句话说，"inundated" 表示被部分淹没或被包围，而 "submerged" 表示被完全淹没或被完全覆盖。