Ukraine’s hopes for victory fade in the face of waning Western support and Putin’s relentless war machine   面对西方支持的减弱和普京的战争机器，乌克兰胜利的希望逐渐破灭

Ukrainian servicemen near the front line town of Marinka, in the Donetsk region.

顿涅茨克地区前线城镇马林卡附近的乌克兰军人。

A year ago, a resolute President Volodymyr Zelensky traveled direct from the battlefield of Bakhmut to address the US Congress and meet with President Joe Biden. He was feted as a hero; Ukraine’s determination to resist Russian aggression met with strong bipartisan backing in Washington.

One year on, the outlook looks much grimmer. A long-anticipated Ukrainian offensive in the south has made scant progress. Russia appears to have weathered international sanctions, for now, and has converted its economy into a war machine.

The Russian way of war, absorbing hideous losses of men and materiel but throwing yet more into the fight, has blunted the Ukrainian military’s tactical and technological edge, as its top general admitted in a candid essay last month.

一年前，意志坚定的泽伦斯基总统直接从巴克穆特战场出发，前往美国国会发表讲话，并会见了乔·拜登总统。他被尊为英雄；乌克兰抵抗俄罗斯侵略的决心得到了华盛顿两党的大力支持。

一年过去了，前景看起来更加黯淡。期待已久的乌克兰南部攻势却进展甚微。目前， 俄罗斯似乎已经经受住了国际制裁，并将其经济转变为战争机器。

正如乌克兰最高将领上个月在一篇坦率的文章中承认的那样 ，俄罗斯的战争方式吸收了人员和物资的惨重损失，但又将更多的人员和物资投入战斗，削弱了乌克兰军队的战术和技术优势。

The mood in Moscow seems grimly determined: the goals of the “special military operation” will be achieved, and the fighting will continue until they are.

Biden to sign new executive order to ‘strengthen’ sanctions against Russia

As the long frontline becomes ever more calcified, the Kremlin senses greater skepticism among Kyiv’s Western backers that Ukraine can recover the 17% of its territory still occupied by Russian forces.

Russian President Vladimir Putin is relishing the much more partisan atmosphere in Washington, where many in the Republican Party are questioning the purpose of sending Ukraine another $61 billion worth of aid as requested by the Biden administration, assessing that it will achieve little on the battlefield.

莫斯科的气氛似乎十分坚定：“特别军事行动”的目标将会实现，战斗将继续下去，直到实现为止。

随着漫长的前线变得更加僵化，克里姆林宫感觉到基辅的西方支持者更加怀疑乌克兰能否收复 仍被俄罗斯军队占领的17%的领土。

俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京 (Vladimir Putin) 很享受华盛顿的党派氛围，许多共和党人质疑应拜登政府的要求向乌克兰再提供价值 610 亿美元的援助的目的，认为这不会在战场上取得什么成果。

At his first year-end news conference since the conflict began, Putin scoffed: “Ukraine produces almost nothing today, everything is coming from the West, but the free stuff is going to run out some day, and it seems it already is.”

在冲突开始以来的第一次年终新闻发布会上，普京嘲笑道：“乌克兰今天几乎什么都不生产，所有东西都来自西方，但免费的东西总有一天会用完，而且似乎已经是这样了。”

Russia's President Vladimir Putin is relishing the more partisan attitude in Washington.

俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京(Vladimir Putin)对华盛顿更具党派倾向的态度感到满意。

At the same time, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban blocked a $55 billion EU package of financial aid for Ukraine, prompting one German politician to say that it was like having Putin himself sitting at the table.

That jeopardizes government spending on everything from salaries to hospitals.

Zelensky, who by his own recent admission is tired, has an ever-harder job as Ukraine’s chief salesman, with events in the Middle East diverting attention from Ukraine as the number-one international crisis.

On the first anniversary of the invasion, he predicted that “2023 will be the year of our victory!” He’s unlikely to make the same optimistic forecast for the coming year.

与此同时，匈牙利总理维克托·欧尔班 (Viktor Orban) 阻止了欧盟向乌克兰提供的 550 亿美元一揽子经济援助，促使一位德国政界人士表示，这就像普京本人坐在桌旁一样。

这会危及政府从工资到医院等各个方面的支出。

泽伦斯基最近承认自己很疲惫，作为乌克兰首席推销员，他的工作越来越艰难，中东发生的事件转移了人们对乌克兰这个头号国际危机的注意力。

在入侵一周年之际，他预言“2023年将是我们胜利的一年！” 他不太可能对来年做出同样乐观的预测。

Russia is not without its own vulnerabilities, but they are more long-term. The conflict has exacerbated its demographic crisis through emigration and battlefield losses. Nearly 750,000 people left Russia in 2022; analysts expect an even higher number will have voted with their feet this year.

Labor shortages are stoking rising wages and therefore inflation. Evading sanctions and maintaining industrial production comes at a price, with much of that production now devoted to replacing the stunning battlefield losses and the budget deficit exploding accordingly.

The long-term prognosis for the Russian economy is grim – and that may be Putin’s most fundamental legacy.

俄罗斯并非没有自身的弱点，但这些弱点更为长期。这场冲突通过移民和战场损失加剧了人口危机。2022年有近75万人离开俄罗斯；分析人士预计，今年用脚投票的人数将会更高。

劳动力短缺导致工资上涨，从而引发通货膨胀。逃避制裁和维持工业生产是有代价的，其中大部分生产现在都用于弥补令人震惊的战场损失，预算赤字也相应激增。

俄罗斯经济的长期前景严峻 — — 这可能是普京最根本的遗产。

But as the economist John Maynard Keynes once said, “In the long run we are all dead.” In the short-term Putin appears unassailable. Reelection in March is a formality (the Kremlin has already acknowledged as much.) Contrast that with the US, where a febrile year of campaigning might end with Donald Trump preparing for his second term. That is Kyiv’s nightmare and Moscow’s dream.

The deeply partisan mood in Congress has scuppered the Biden’s administration’s request for further aid for Kyiv. Currently allocated funds for military equipment are nearly drained. One Democratic Senator, Chris Murphy, said starkly: “We are about to abandon Ukraine.”

The mantra in Western capitals on supporting Ukraine has been “as long as it takes.” But standing next to Zelensky this month, President Biden said the US would support Ukraine “as long as we can.”

但正如经济学家约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯曾经说过的那样：“从长远来看，我们都死了。” 短期来看，普京似乎是无懈可击的。3月份的连任只是一种形式（克里姆林宫已经承认了这一点）。与美国形成鲜明对比的是，在美国，狂热的竞选活动可能会随着唐纳德·特朗普为他的第二个任期做准备而结束。这是基辅的噩梦，也是莫斯科的梦想。

国会中严重的党派情绪阻碍了拜登政府向基辅提供进一步援助的请求。目前用于军事装备的资金几乎耗尽。一位民主党参议员克里斯·墨菲直言不讳地说：“我们即将放弃乌克兰。”

西方国家首都支持乌克兰的口头禅是“不惜一切代价”。但本月，拜登总统站在泽伦斯基旁边表示，美国将“尽我们所能”支持乌克兰。

Battlefield slog

战场艰苦

While the global metrics for Ukraine deteriorate, so the frontlines offer little cheer.

The much-anticipated Ukrainian counteroffensive launched in June was meant to display the superiority of NATO’s strategy of combined arms warfare, drilled into newly-minted Ukrainian brigades who were trained in muddy fields in Germany. But it was alien to Ukrainian military culture and was not matched by superiority in the skies.

What should have been a dash south to the Black Sea became a quagmire in dense minefields, with Western armor picked off from the air by Russian drones and aviation.

Ukrainian units took at most 200 square kilometers of territory over six months. The goals of reaching the coastline, Crimea and splitting Russian forces in the south remained a distant dream.

尽管乌克兰的全球指标不断恶化，但前线却没有带来多少欢乐。

6月份备受期待的乌克兰反攻旨在展示北约联合兵种作战战略的优越性，该战略的训练对象是在德国泥泞的田野里训练的新成立的乌克兰旅。但这与乌克兰的军事文化格格不入，而且空中优势也无法与之相匹配。

本应向南冲向黑海的地方，却变成了布满雷区的泥潭，西方装甲部队被俄罗斯无人机和飞机从空中击落。

乌克兰部队在六个月内占领了最多 200 平方公里的领土。到达海岸线、克里米亚并在南部分裂俄罗斯军队的目标仍然是一个遥远的梦想。

President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy is by his own admission tired.

乌克兰总统弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基自己承认很累

With the frontlines frozen, Kyiv’s intelligence agencies have turned to more spectacular attacks: sinking a Russian landing ship in Crimea this week and even sabotaging railway lines as far as the Russian Far East. Success in the Black Sea has allowed for relatively safe passage for merchant ships, despite Moscow abandoning a UN-brokered deal last summer.

However, despite their audacity, such operations won’t alter the fundamental balance of the conflict.

Zaluzhnyi put it bluntly: “The level of our technological development today has put both us and our enemies in a stupor.” The use of surveillance and strike drones deprives both sides of the element of surprise within the confines of the battlefield.

“The simple fact is that we see everything the enemy is doing, and they see everything we are doing.”

由于前线被冻结，基辅的情报机构转向了更引人注目的袭击：本周在克里米亚击沉了一艘俄罗斯登陆舰，甚至破坏了远至俄罗斯远东地区的铁路线。尽管莫斯科去年夏天放弃了一项联合国斡旋的协议，但黑海的成功使得商船的通行相对安全。

然而，尽管他们胆大妄为，此类行动不会改变冲突的基本平衡。

扎卢日尼直言不讳地说：“我们今天的技术发展水平已经让我们和我们的敌人都陷入了昏迷。” 监视和攻击无人机的使用剥夺了双方在战场范围内的突然性。

“简单的事实是，我们看到敌人所做的一切，他们也看到我们所做的一切。”

But the Russians’ vast reserves of manpower and hardware (Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu boasted that he could raise 25 million men if necessary) mean they can continue bludgeoning the smaller Ukrainian military, making incremental gains at enormous cost.

So it was around Bakhmut last winter; perhaps the same will apply to the ruined Donetsk town of Avdiivka in the next few weeks.

但俄罗斯拥有大量的人力和硬件储备（国防部长谢尔盖·绍伊古吹嘘说，如果有必要，他可以招募 2500 万人），这意味着他们可以继续打击规模较小的乌克兰军队，以巨大的代价取得渐进的成果。

去年冬天，巴赫穆特附近就是这样；也许在接下来的几周内，同样的情况也将适用于顿涅茨克的阿夫季夫卡镇废墟。

The pool of military recruits in Ukraine has substantially shrunk; battlefield losses have deprived the military of tens of thousands of experienced soldiers and mid-rank officers. “Sooner or later we are going to find that we simply don’t have enough people to fight,” Zaluzhnyi told the Economist in November.

The arrival of F-16s fighter jets in the spring will undoubtedly help the Ukrainian air force challenge Russian combat planes and support their own ground forces, but they will be no silver bullet. Basic training is one thing; flying into the teeth of Russian air defenses another.

The same would apply even if the US agreed to supply longer-range Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) to Ukraine. (UK-supplied Storm Shadow missiles have helped target the Russian rear.)

乌克兰的新兵人数大幅减少；战场上的损失使军队失去了数万名经验丰富的士兵和中级军官。“我们迟早会发现我们根本没有足够的人来战斗，”扎卢日尼在 11 月份告诉《经济学人》。

F-16战斗机在春季的到来无疑将帮助乌克兰空军挑战俄罗斯战斗机并支持自己的地面部队，但它们并不是灵丹妙药。基础训练是一回事；又飞进了俄罗斯防空系统的牙齿。

即使美国同意向乌克兰提供远程陆军战术导弹系统（ATACMS），同样的情况也适用。（英国提供的“风暴之影”导弹帮助瞄准了俄罗斯后方。）

In any event, the paralysis over funding has blocked the pipeline of US weaponry and Europe does not have the capacity to fill the gap.

Some leading analysts conclude it’s time for a clear-eyed reassessment.

“Ukraine and the West are on an unsustainable trajectory, one characterized by a glaring mismatch between ends and the available means,” write Richard Haass and Charles Kupchan in Foreign Affairs.

无论如何，资金瘫痪已经阻塞了美国武器的供应渠道，而欧洲没有能力填补这一缺口。

一些主要分析师得出的结论是，现在是进行清醒的重新评估的时候了。

理查德·哈斯和查尔斯·库普坎在《外交事务》中写道：“乌克兰和西方正走在一条不可持续的轨道上，其特点是目标与可用手段之间明显不匹配。”

Ukraine’s goal of recovering all its territory is “out of reach,” they say bluntly. “Where we are looks at best like a costly deadlock.”

They recommend that Ukraine shifts to a defensive posture in 2024 to stem losses, which would “shore up Western support by demonstrating that Kyiv has a workable strategy aimed at attainable goals.”

The Russian military, which has by and large proved inept in offensive operations, would thereby find it even more difficult to take ground.

To others, such a shift would essentially reward aggression, enabling Russia to pause and regroup, with potentially dangerous consequences for others in Russia’s near-abroad. It would also send the wrong message about US commitment to other allies, such as Taiwan. And it’s a non-starter, politically, in Kyiv.

他们直言不讳地说，乌克兰收复全部领土的目标“遥不可及” 。 “我们现在的处境充其量只是一个代价高昂的僵局。”

他们建议乌克兰在 2024 年转向防御姿态以阻止损失，这将“通过证明基辅拥有旨在实现目标的可行战略来支撑西方的支持”。

事实证明，俄罗斯军队在进攻行动中总体上表现不佳，因此更难以占领阵地。

对其他人来说，这种转变本质上会奖励侵略，使俄罗斯能够暂停并重新集结，这可能会给俄罗斯近邻的其他国家带来潜在的危险后果。它还会发出关于美国对台湾等其他盟友的承诺的错误信息。从政治角度来说，这在基辅是不可能的。

Ukrainian soldiers fire artillery towards Russian positions to support frontline troops in the direction of Avdiivka, Donetsk Oblast.

乌克兰士兵向俄罗斯阵地开炮，支援顿涅茨克州阿夫季夫卡方向的前线部队。

President Biden said during Zelensky’s visit that “Putin is banking on the United States failing to deliver for Ukraine. We must, we must, we must prove him wrong.”

It smacked of desperation. Haass and Kupchan say “Ukraine would be wise to devote incoming resources to its long-term security and prosperity instead of expending it on the battlefield for little gain.”

There are certainly signs of tensions within Ukrainian society as the conflict nears its second anniversary and the economy struggles to start growing again, after shrinking by one-third. The longer several million Ukrainians live elsewhere in Europe, the less likely they are to come back.

拜登总统在泽连斯基访问期间表示，“普京指望美国无法为乌克兰做出贡献。我们必须、我们必须、我们必须证明他是错的。”

语气里透着绝望的味道。哈斯和库普坎表示，“乌克兰明智的做法是将获得的资源用于其长期安全和繁荣，而不是将其浪费在战场上而收效甚微。”

随着冲突临近两周年，乌克兰社会内部确实出现了紧张局势，经济在萎缩三分之一后难以再次开始增长。数百万乌克兰人在欧洲其他地方生活的时间越长，他们回来的可能性就越小。

For now Zelensky and his inner circle show no sign of compromise. Zelensky won’t countenance a truce or negotiations. “For us it would mean leaving this wound open for future generations,” he told TIME in November.

Instead, barring some unlikely collapse in morale on either side, the same towns and villages destroyed over the last two years will still be fought over in the next. Ukraine will have the means to survive, but not to win.

目前泽伦斯基和他的核心圈子没有表现出妥协的迹象。泽伦斯基不会支持休战或谈判。“对我们来说，这意味着让子孙后代留下这个伤口，”他在 11 月告诉《时代》杂志。

相反，除非双方士气出现不太可能的崩溃，否则过去两年被摧毁的城镇和村庄在未来仍将争夺。乌克兰有办法生存，但没有办法获胜。