三哥要哭了！刚刚纽约时报头版头条唱衰印度经济，称其比不上中国(附2024年最新排行榜前十排名名单)

India Is Chasing China’s Economy. But Something Is Holding It Back.

印度正在追赶中国经济。但有些东西阻碍了它。

Long-term investment in India by businesses is stagnant, and foreign money is falling, even as the government is driving growth with infrastructure spending.

尽管政府正在通过基础设施支出推动经济增长，但企业对印度的长期投资却停滞不前，外国资金也在下降。

Workers at a wholesale market in New Delhi.新德里一家批发市场的工人。

India’s economy is booming. Stock prices are through the roof, among the best performing in the world. The government’s investment in airports, bridges and roads, and clean-energy infrastructure is visible almost everywhere. India’s total output, or gross domestic product, is expected to increase 6 percent this year — faster than the United States or China.

But there’s a hitch: Investment by Indian companies is not keeping pace. The money that companies put into the future of their businesses, for things like new machines and factories, is stagnant. As a fraction of India’s economy, it is shrinking. And while money is flying into India’s stock markets, long-term investment from overseas has been declining.

Green and red lights are flashing at the same time. At some point soon, the government will need to reduce its extraordinary spending, which could weigh on the economy if private sector money doesn’t pick up.

印度经济正在蓬勃发展。股价飙升，跻身全球表现最佳之列。政府对机场、桥梁和道路以及清洁能源基础设施的投资几乎随处可见。印度今年的总产出（即国内生产总值）预计将增长 6%，快于美国或中国。

但有一个问题：印度公司的投资没有跟上步伐。公司为其未来业务（例如新机器和工厂）投入的资金停滞不前。作为印度经济的一小部分，它正在萎缩。尽管资金大量涌入印度股市，但来自海外的长期投资却一直在下降。

绿灯和红灯同时闪烁。在不久的将来，政府将需要减少非常规支出，如果私营部门的资金不增加，这可能会给经济带来压力。

No one expects India to stop growing, but a rise of 6 percent is not enough to meet India’s ambitions. Its population, now the world’s biggest, is growing. Its government has set a national goal of catching up to China and becoming a developed nation by 2047. That kind of leap will require sustained growth closer to 8 or 9 percent a year, most economists say.

没有人预计印度会停止增长，但6%的增长并不足以满足印度的野心。它的人口现在是世界上最多的，而且还在增长。中国政府制定了到 2047 年赶上中国并成为发达国家的国家目标。大多数经济学家表示，这种飞跃需要每年接近 8% 或 9% 的持续增长。

Foreign direct investment in India

印度的外国直接投资

Note: Rolling 12-month total 注：滚动 12 个月总计

Source: Reserve Bank of India资料来源：印度储备银行

The missing investment could also present a challenge for Narendra Modi, the prime minister since 2014, who has concentrated on making India an easier place for foreign and Indian companies to do business.

Mr. Modi is in campaign mode, facing elections in the spring and rallying the nation to cheer his successes. The sluggish investment is not something executives, bankers or foreign diplomats like to discuss, for fear of looking like naysayers. But investors are playing it safe while the economy is signaling both strengths and weaknesses.

One point of widespread agreement is that India should benefit from China’s slowdown, which has been fueled by an unfolding property crisis. China’s geopolitical tensions with the West present another opening for India, by motivating foreign companies to move production in China to other countries.

缺失的投资也可能给自 2014 年以来担任总理的纳伦德拉·莫迪 (Narendra Modi)带来挑战，他一直致力于让印度成为外国和印度公司更容易开展业务的地方。

莫迪正处于竞选模式，面临春季选举，并召集全国人民为他的成功欢呼。高管、银行家或外国外交官不喜欢讨论投资低迷的问题，因为担心看起来像是反对者。但在经济显示出优势和劣势之际，投资者正在谨慎行事。

人们普遍同意的一点是，印度应该从中国经济放缓中受益，而中国的经济放缓是由不断发展的房地产危机推动的。中国与西方的地缘政治紧张局势为印度提供了另一个机会，促使外国公司将中国的生产转移到其他国家。

The site of a new metro station and flyover in the Indian capital, New Delhi. The government’s investment in airports, bridges and roads, and clean-energy infrastructure is visible almost everywhere.

印度首都新德里的新地铁站和天桥所在地。政府对机场、桥梁和道路以及清洁能源基础设施的投资几乎随处可见。

But while money is flying into India’s stock markets, long-term investment from overseas has been declining.

然而，尽管资金大量涌入印度股市，但来自海外的长期投资却一直在下降。

Sriram Viswanathan, an Indian-born managing partner at Celesta, a Silicon Valley venture capital fund, describes investors “wanting to fill the vacuum that has been created in the supply chain.”

硅谷风险投资基金 Celesta 出生于印度的斯里拉姆·维斯瓦纳坦 (Sriram Viswanathan) 表示，投资者“希望填补供应链中出现的真空”。

“That, I think, is the opportunity for India,” he said.

The World Bank has applauded India’s commitment to infrastructure spending, which ramped up during the pandemic when the private sector needed rescuing. Since then, the government has doubled down, paying for bricks-and-mortar improvement to the rickety roads, ports and power supply that once discouraged business investment.

“我认为，这对印度来说是机会，”他说。

世界银行对印度对基础设施支出的承诺表示赞赏，在疫情期间私营部门需要救助时，印度的基础设施支出增加了。从那时起，政府加倍投入，出资对曾经阻碍商业投资的摇摇欲坠的道路、港口和电力供应进行实体改善。

But the World Bank, whose mission is to nudge developing economies higher, says it is critical that those billions’ worth of government spending ignite a burst of corporate spending. Its economists speak of a “crowd-in effect,” which happens when, for instance, a new port next to a shiny new industrial park lures companies into building plants and hiring workers. Last year, the bank said it anticipated an imminent crowding-in, as it has forecast for almost three years running.

“To accelerate the growth of confidence, public investment is not enough,” Auguste Tano Kouamé, the World Bank’s country director for India, said at a news conference in April. “You need deeper reforms to make the private sector invest.”

但以推动发展中经济体走高为使命的世界银行表示，价值数十亿美元的政府支出能否刺激企业支出激增至关重要。该国经济学家谈到了“拥挤效应”，例如，当一个闪亮的新工业园区旁边的一个新港口吸引公司建造工厂和雇用工人时，就会发生这种情况。去年，该银行表示，预计将出现大量涌入，这是该行近三年来的预测。

“要加速信心的增长，公共投资是不够的，”世界银行印度国别主任奥古斯特·塔诺·库阿梅 (Auguste Tano Kouamé) 在四月份的新闻发布会上表示。“你需要进行更深入的改革来吸引私营部门投资。”

A lack of confidence helps explain why the stock markets are setting records, even while foreign investors are backing away from buying into the Indian economy through start-ups and acquisitions.

缺乏信心有助于解释为什么尽管外国投资者不再通过初创企业和收购来投资印度经济，但股市却创下了纪录。

India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi, in Ahmedabad in November. One reason businesses are watching and waiting to make investments is Mr. Modi’s powerful national government.

11 月，印度总理纳伦德拉·莫迪在艾哈迈达巴德。莫迪强大的国家政府是企业观望并等待投资的原因之一。

The stock markets in Mumbai, India’s business capital, are worth nearly $4 trillion, up from $3 trillion a year ago, making them more valuable than Hong Kong’s. India’s small investors have been a big part of that, but trading stocks is quick and easy, compared with buying and selling companies. A recent annual average of $40 billion in foreign direct investment has shrunk to $13 billion in the past year.

One reason that businesses are watching and waiting to make investments is Mr. Modi’s powerful national government.

On the one hand, business craves stability in political leadership, and India has rarely, if ever, had such a well-entrenched leader. He demolished the main opposition party in three big elections across the Hindi-speaking heartland in December and looks like a shoo-in for re-election this year. And Mr. Modi is vocally pro-business.

印度商业之都孟买的股票市场价值近 4 万亿美元，高于一年前的 3 万亿美元，比香港股市更有价值。印度的小投资者占了很大一部分，但与买卖公司相比，股票交易既快捷又容易。最近年均 400 亿美元的外国直接投资已缩减至去年的 130 亿美元。

莫迪强大的国家政府是企业观望并等待投资的原因之一。

一方面，商界渴望稳定的政治领导，而印度很少有这样一位根深蒂固的领导人。12月，他在印地语中心地带的三场大型选举中击败了主要反对党，看起来今年连任是稳操胜券。莫迪先生公开表示支持商业。

His government plays a markedly interventionist role in managing the economy, in a way that can make it dangerous for firms to place their stakes.

In August, the government announced sudden restrictions on the import of laptop computers, to spur production at home. That sent businesses that depend on them into a tailspin, and the measure was almost as suddenly withdrawn. Likewise in July, the government slapped online betting companies with a retroactive 28 percent tax, gutting a $1.5 billion industry overnight.

他的政府在管理经济方面扮演着明显的干预主义角色，这可能会让企业投资变得危险。

八月，政府突然宣布限制笔记本电脑进口，以刺激国内生产。这让依赖它们的企业陷入混乱，该措施几乎突然被撤回。同样在 7 月份，政府对在线博彩公司征收 28% 的追溯税，一夜之间摧毁了价值 15 亿美元的行业。

Workers in Dholera, an industrial park in the state of Gujarat, in August. The World Bank has applauded India’s commitment to infrastructure spending, which ramped up during the pandemic.

八月，古吉拉特邦多莱拉工业园区的工人们。世界银行对印度对基础设施支出的承诺表示赞赏，该支出在疫情期间有所增加。

“To accelerate the growth of confidence, public investment is not enough,” Auguste Tano Kouamé, the World Bank’s country director for India, said at a news conference in April. “You need deeper reforms to make the private sector invest.

“要加速信心的增长，公共投资是不够的，”世界银行印度国别主任奥古斯特·塔诺·库阿梅 (Auguste Tano Kouamé) 在四月份的新闻发布会上表示。“你需要进行更深入的改革来吸引私营部门投资。”

Businesses close to Mr. Modi and his political circle have done especially well. The most prominent examples are Mukesh Ambani’s Reliance Industries and the Adani Group, conglomerates that reach into numerous areas of Indian life. Their combined market power has grown gigantic in recent years: The flagship stocks of each company are worth about six times more than they were when Mr. Modi became prime minister.

与莫迪及其政界关系密切的企业表现尤其出色。最突出的例子是穆克什·安巴尼 (Mukesh Ambani) 的信实工业 (Reliance Industries)和阿达尼集团 (Adani Group)，这两家企业集团涉足印度生活的众多领域。近年来，它们的综合市场力量已变得巨大：每家公司的旗舰股票的价值大约是莫迪担任总理时的六倍。

Some smaller companies have been the target of high-profile raids by tax-enforcement agencies.

“If you’re not the two A’s” — Adani or Ambani — it can be treacherous to navigate India’s regulatory byways, said Arvind Subramanian, an economist at Brown University who served under Mr. Modi’s government as chief economic adviser from 2014 to 2018. “Domestic investors feel a little bit vulnerable,” he added.

The past nine years of Modi government have improved many things in the business environment for all. Crucial systems work better, many types of corruption have been reined in and digitization of commerce has opened up new arenas for growth.

一些规模较小的公司已成为税务执法机构高调突击搜查的目标。

布朗大学经济学家阿尔文德·萨勃拉曼尼安 (Arvind Subramanian) 表示，“如果你不是阿达尼或安巴尼这两个 A”，那么在印度的监管道路上走下去可能会很危险。阿尔文德·萨勃拉曼尼亚曾于 2014 年至 2018 年在莫迪政府担任首席经济顾问。 “国内投资者感觉有点脆弱，”他补充道。

过去九年的莫迪政府为所有人改善了商业环境的许多方面。关键系统运行得更好，多种类型的腐败得到遏制，商业数字化 开辟了新的增长领域。

“What is really complex and interesting about this Modi phenomenon is that there’s a lot of hype and bluster and manipulation,” Mr. Subramanian said. “But it’s built on a core of achievement.”

Still, foreign officials charged with bringing billions of investment capital to India complain that much of the traditional pain of doing business in India lingers. The one most frequently cited is red tape. Too many officials get involved at every level of approval, and it remains painfully slow to obtain legal judgments, let alone to enforce them.

“莫迪现象的真正复杂和有趣之处在于，存在大量的炒作、恐吓和操纵，”萨勃拉曼尼安先生说。“但它建立在成就的核心之上。”

尽管如此，负责向印度带来数十亿投资资金的外国官员抱怨说，在印度做生意的许多传统痛苦仍然存在。最常被引用的一种是繁文缛节。太多的官员参与各个级别的审批，而获得法律判决的速度仍然极其缓慢，更不用说执行它们了。

A consumer market in New Delhi. Foreign officials charged with bringing billions of investment capital to India complain that much of the traditional pain of doing business in India lingers.

新德里的一个消费市场。负责向印度带来数十亿投资资金的外国官员抱怨说，在印度做生意的许多传统痛苦仍然存在。

The biggest wild card is whether India can grab a significant share of global business from China.

最大的变数是印度能否从中国手中夺取全球业务的重要份额。

Another factor holding back longer-term investment is an underlying weakness in “the India growth story.” The most powerful source of demand, the kind that foreign investors and domestic businesses covet, is among the wealthiest consumers. In a population of 1.4 billion, about 20 million Indians are doing well enough to buy European consumer products, build luxury homes and beef up the top tier of the automotive sector.

Most of the rest of the population is struggling with inflation in food and fuel prices. Banks are extending credit to consumers of both kinds, but less so to businesses, which fear that the great majority of their customers will be tightening their belts for years to come.

阻碍长期投资的另一个因素是“印度增长故事”的潜在弱点。外国投资者和国内企业觊觎的最强大的需求来源是最富有的消费者。在 14 亿人口中，约 2000 万印度人的生活状况良好，足以购买欧洲消费品、建造豪华住宅并增强汽车行业的顶级地位。

其余大多数人都在与食品和燃料价格的通货膨胀作斗争。银行正在向这两类消费者提供信贷，但向企业提供的信贷却较少，因为企业担心绝大多数客户将在未来几年勒紧裤腰带。

“For the moment, there is no evidence that investors are feeling reassured about India,” Mr. Subramanian said.

But he remains hopeful. The annual growth, even if less than 6 percent, is nothing to sniff at. The new and improved infrastructure should attract more private investment eventually. And the benefits of consumer wealth, unevenly distributed as they are, could over time raise up more incomes.

“目前，没有证据表明投资者对印度感到放心，”萨勃拉曼尼安表示。

但他仍然充满希望。年增长率即使低于6%，也不容小觑。新的和改进的基础设施最终应该会吸引更多的私人投资。消费者财富的好处尽管分布不均，但随着时间的推移，可能会增加更多的收入。

The biggest wild card is whether India can grab a significant share of global business from China. The highest-profile example is Apple, the $3 trillion megacompany, which is slowly moving some of its supply chain away from China. Its pricey iPhone has barely 5 percent of the Indian market. But currently about 7 percent of the world’s iPhones are made in India — and JPMorgan Chase has estimated that Apple intends to get that to 25 percent by 2025. At that point, all kinds of things become possible for India.

“We should keep our minds open,” Mr. Subramanian said.

最大的变数是印度能否从中国手中夺取全球业务的重要份额。最引人注目的例子是苹果公司，这家价值 3 万亿美元的巨型公司正在慢慢地将部分供应链从中国转移。其价格昂贵的 iPhone 仅占印度市场 5% 的份额。但目前全球约 7% 的 iPhone 是在印度制造的——摩根大通估计，苹果打算到 2025 年将这一比例提高到 25%。到那时，印度的一切都成为可能。

“我们应该保持开放的心态，”萨勃拉曼尼亚先生说。

Businesses close to Mr. Modi and his political circle have done especially well. Some smaller companies have been the target of high-profile raids by tax-enforcement agencies.

与莫迪及其政界关系密切的企业表现尤其出色。一些规模较小的公司已成为税务执法机构高调突击搜查的目标。