South Korea’s military has a new enemy: Population math

韩国军队有了新敌人：人口数学

South Korean marines take part in the "Ssangyong 2023 Exercise" joint landing operation by US and South Korean Marines in the south-eastern port of Pohang on March 29, 2023.

2023年3月29日，韩国海军陆战队参加美国和韩国海军陆战队在东南部浦项港举行的“双龙2023演习”联合登陆行动。

South Korea, with the world’s lowest birth rate, may soon find itself without enough troops to keep its military fully staffed as it deals with new threats in an increasingly tense Western Pacific region, analysts say.

分析人士称，作为世界上出生率最低的韩国，在应对日益紧张的西太平洋地区的新威胁时，可能很快就会发现自己没有足够的军队来保证军队的人员配备。

Always wary of North Korea’s nuclear and missile threats, South Korea keeps an active-duty force of about half a million troops. But with a birth rate of only 0.78 children per woman over a lifetime, the math might be South Korea’s biggest enemy at the moment, and experts say it has no choice but to downsize its forces.

韩国始终对朝鲜的核威胁和导弹威胁保持警惕，拥有一支约50万军队的现役部队。但由于每名妇女一生中的生育率仅为 0.78 个孩子，数学可能是韩国目前最大的敌人，专家表示，韩国别无选择，只能缩减兵力。

“With our current birth rate, the future is predetermined. Downsizing of the force will be inevitable,” said Choi Byung-ook, a national security professor at Sangmyung University.

“以我们目前的出生率，未来是预先确定的。祥明大学国家安全学教授崔秉玉表示，缩减军队规模将是不可避免的。

To maintain current troops levels, the South Korean military needs to enlist or conscript 200,000 soldiers a year, he said.

But in 2022, fewer than 250,000 babies were born. Assuming about a 50-50 male-female split, that means in 20 years, when those children are of the age to join the military, only about 125,000 men will be available for the 200,000 spots needed.

他说，为了维持目前的兵力水平，韩国军队每年需要征召或征召20万名士兵。

但到 2022 年，出生的婴儿数量还不到 25 万。假设男女比例大约为 50-50 人，这意味着 20 年后，当这些孩子达到参军年龄时，只有大约 125,000 名男子可以满足所需的 200,000 个名额。

Women are not conscripted in South Korea, and volunteer females accounted for only 3.6% of the current Korean military, according to Defense Ministry figures.

And the annual number of newborns is only forecasted to drop further, to 220,000 in 2025 and 160,000 in 2072, according to Statistics Korea.

根据国防部的数据，韩国不征召女性入伍，目前韩国军队中女性志愿兵仅占 3.6%。

据韩国统计局称，预计每年新生儿数量将进一步下降，到 2025 年将降至 22 万，2072 年将降至 16 万。

Preparing for two decades

准备了二十年

While South Korea’s declining birth rate has been making headlines in recent years, it’s a trend the military had seen coming and prepared for.

尽管韩国出生率下降近年来一直成为头条新闻，但军方已经预见到这一趋势并为此做好了准备。

In the early 2000s, Seoul voluntarily decided to reduce the number of active soldiers from 674,000 in 2006 to 500,000 by 2020, based on “the premise that the threat from North Korea would gradually diminish,” and to promote a smaller but more elite military force, according to a 2022 defense white paper.

2000年代初，基于“朝鲜威胁逐渐减弱的前提”，首尔自愿决定将现役军人数量从2006年的67.4万人减少到2020年的50万人，并推动一支规模更小但更精锐的军队，根据2022 年国防白皮书。

South Korea’s military has reached that goal, decreasing troop size by 27.6% in two decades, from 2002 to 2022.

But the premise that the threat from North Korea would diminish has proven false.

韩国军队已经实现了这一目标，从 2002 年到 2022 年的二十年里，军队规模减少了 27.6%。

但事实证明，来自朝鲜的威胁将会减弱的前提是错误的。

Kim Jong Un, the third consecutive member of his family dynasty to rule, came to power in Pyongyang in 2011. Despite brief lulls while he negotiated with South Korea and the United States to reduce tensions, he has pushed a massive buildup in the North Korean military, especially in its ballistic missile programs.

金正恩是其家族王朝中连续第三位执政的成员，于 2011 年在平壤上台。尽管他在与韩国和美国谈判缓和紧张局势时经历了短暂的平静，但他还是推动了朝鲜的大规模集结。军事，特别是弹道导弹计划。

Following North Korea’s test of its fifth intercontinental ballistic missile this year, Kim warned that his country would not “hesitate” to conduct a nuclear attack when the enemy provokes with its nuclear weapons, referring to the deployment of US nuclear-capable weapons platforms in and around the Korean Peninsula, state-media KCNA reported earlier this month.

继朝鲜今年试射第五枚洲际弹道导弹 后，金正恩警告说，当敌人用核武器挑衅时，朝鲜将毫不犹豫地发动核攻击，他指的是美国在朝鲜半岛和朝鲜半岛部署的核能力武器平台。官方媒体朝中社本月早些时候报道称，朝鲜半岛周边局势正在发生变化。

But if Kim were to attack across the 38th parallel, which divided North and South Korea after the 1953 armistice halting the Korean War, it’s the South Korean military that would bear the biggest defense burden.

但如果金正恩要越过北纬38度线（1953年朝鲜战争停战协议将朝鲜和韩国分开）发起进攻，那么韩国军队将承担最大的防御负担。

Turning to tech

转向科技

Experts say South Korea must look at science to counter that North Korean threat and turn a manpower crisis into a technology transformation.

“Korean defense authorities have had this longstanding policy that we would go from a manpower-centric military to a technology-oriented military,” said Chun In-bum, a former lieutenant general in the South Korean Army.

专家表示，韩国必须依靠科学来应对朝鲜的威胁，并将人力危机转化为技术转型。

韩国陆军前中将全仁范表示：“韩国国防当局长期以来一直奉行一项政策，即我们将从以人力为中心的军队转变为以技术为导向的军队。”

In 2005, South Korea’s Defense Ministry released a plan to develop its military into a science-technology-centric force by 2020, but progress has been scant.

“Although the military was trying to make the transition, there was no urge, because (with) South Korea’s conscripts … there were plenty of human resources,” Choi said.

2005年，韩国国防部发布了一项计划，计划到2020年将韩国军队发展成为一支以科技为中心的军队，但进展甚微。

“虽然军方正在尝试进行过渡，但没有任何冲动，因为韩国的应征入伍者......有充足的人力资源，”崔说。

But Russia’s war in Ukraine has shown the world that on the modern battlefield, sheer troop numbers aren’t enough. Of the 360,000 soldiers that made up Russia’s pre-invasion ground force, including contract and conscript personnel, Moscow has lost 315,000 on the battlefield, according to a recent US Defense Department assessment.

但俄罗斯在乌克兰的战争向世界表明，在现代战场上，仅靠军队数量是不够的。根据美国国防部最近的评估，在入侵前俄罗斯地面部队的 36 万名士兵（包括合同兵和义务兵）中，莫斯科已在战场上损失了 31.5 万人。

Ukraine’s use of drones and high-tech weapons supplied by Western partners have taken a deadly toll on Moscow’s greater force numbers.

South Korea has been putting an emphasis on integrating new technologies into its fighting units.

乌克兰使用西方合作伙伴提供的无人机和高科技武器，对莫斯科庞大的部队造成了致命的损失。

韩国一直强调将新技术融入其战斗部队。

The Defense Ministry last year said it would make a phased transition to an AI-based manned-unmanned teaming (MUM-T) combat system, and introduced the Army TIGER brigade — a so-called “future unit” — which utilizes both manpower and unmanned equipment to carry out missions.

国防部去年表示，将分阶段过渡到基于人工智能的有人-无人编队（MUM-T）作战系统，并推出了陆军 TIGER 旅——所谓的“未来部队”——该部队同时利用人力和无人机执行任务的无人设备。

South Korea has also been developing unmanned military equipment, including the medium-altitude unmanned aerial vehicle (MUAV) and unmanned underwater vehicle (UUV).

韩国还一直在开发无人军事装备，包括中空无人机（MUAV）和 无人水下航行器（UUV）。

Experts say troops are indispensable

专家称军队不可或缺

But Chun, the former South Korean general, says technology is not a panacea.

For instance, it takes manpower to take and hold territory. And it takes well-trained and educated people to run and oversee artificial intelligence (AI) systems on the battlefield.

但韩国前将军全淳表示，技术并不是万能药。

例如，夺取和保持领土需要人力。需要训练有素、受过良好教育的人员在战场上运行和监督人工智能 (AI) 系统。

“It’s not going to be enough, and no matter how we try,” Chun said of technology. “It’s going to help, but it will not solve the problem that we lack people.”

Both he and Choi have ideas on how to get more out of a smaller military force.

“无论我们如何努力，这都还不够，”春谈到技术时说道。“这会有帮助，但不能解决我们缺人的问题。”

他和崔对如何从较小的军事力量中获得更多收益都有自己的想法。

For one, leverage of the conscription system and the reserve component that it yields, Chun said.

“We need to revamp our mobilization system, where we’ll be able to tap into the large number of reserve population that we have,” Chun said.

春说，其一，征兵制度及其产生的储备部分的杠杆作用。

“我们需要改进我们的动员系统，这样我们就能够利用我们拥有的大量后备人口，”春说。

After South Korean men finish their 18 to 21 months of mandatory military service, they become reservists for eight years. During this time, they get called into assigned units once a year to remind them of their positions and duties. And after that, they are subject to participate in civil defense training every year until the age of 40.

韩国男性完成 18 至 21 个月的义务兵役后，将成为预备役军人八年。在此期间，他们每年都会被叫到指定单位一次，以提醒他们自己的职位和职责。此后，每年都要参加民防训练，直到40岁。

South Korean Marines look inland after a beach landing rehearsal for Exercise Ssang Yong on March 28 in Pohang, South Korea.

3 月 28 日，韩国浦项，韩国海军陆战队在双龙演习海滩登陆排练结束后观察内陆情况。

The system now gives South Korea 3.1 million reserve troops.

Reservists must attend a two-night, three-day training session every year.

One ongoing pilot system is to have a select number of those reservists train for 180 days a year, to reinforce their skills.

该系统目前为韩国提供了310万后备军。

预备役军人每年必须参加为期三天两晚的训练。

一个正在进行的试点系统是让选定数量的预备役军人每年接受 180 天的训练，以增强他们的技能。

Another option is increasing the number of professional cadres – commissioned, warrant and non-commissioned officers – all of whom are volunteers, serving longer terms, during which they would become well-versed in operating advanced weapons “to prevent a gap in combat capability despite the reduction of standing forces,” according to the 2022 white paper.

The military has been increasing the ratio of cadres among its total force from 31.6% in 2017 to 40.2% in 2022, according to the Defense Ministry. A further rise to 40.5% by 2027 is planned, it said.

另一种选择是增加专业干部的数量——军官、准尉和士官——他们都是志愿人员，服役时间较长，在此期间他们将熟练操作先进武器，“以防止战斗能力的差距，尽管减少常备军”，2022 年白皮书指出。

据国防部称，军队正在将干部占总兵力的比例从2017年的31.6%提高到2022年的40.2%。计划到 2027 年进一步升至 40.5%。

A recruitment problem

招聘问题

One problem with this plan: The population isn’t buying in.

The number of applicants for commissioned officer positions has fallen over the years, from about 30,000 in 2018 to 19,000 in 2022, according to Defense Ministry data.

这一计划的一个问题是：民众并不买账。

根据国防部的数据，多年来，申请军官职位的人数一直在下降，从 2018 年的约 30,000 人减少到 2022 年的 19,000 人。

“The military is having a huge difficulty in securing outstanding entry-level professional cadres who would, in 10, 20 years, form an outstanding officer corps,” Choi said, pointing out that insufficient financial and social benefits for cadres are the main reason behind falling application rates.

崔说：“军队在培养优秀的初级专业干部方面存在巨大困难，这些干部将在10年、20年内形成一支优秀的军官队伍。”他指出，干部的经济和社会福利不足是造成这种现象的主要原因。申请率下降。

And what about turning to women, even in a military with conscription?

Israel has conscription and 40% of its conscripted force is female, according to the Jewish Women’s Archive. In the all-volunteer US and Canadian armed forces, more than 16% of the troops are women.

即使在征兵制的军队中，转向女性又如何呢？

根据犹太妇女档案馆的数据，以色列实行征兵制度，40% 的应征士兵是女性。在美国和加拿大的全志愿武装部队中，超过 16% 的士兵是女性。

Choi said conscripting women could solve South Korea’s problem, but he said there are too many impediments to it in Korea’s traditionally patriarchal society. And even if those are overcome, it could simply be too expensive.

“There are various complex factors like social costs and women giving birth. So, I think the cost [in need] would be much higher than the actual profit,” he said.

崔表示，征召女性入伍可以解决韩国的问题，但他表示，韩国传统的父权社会存在太多障碍。即使克服了这些问题，成本也可能太高。

“存在各种复杂的因素，例如社会成本和妇女生育。因此，我认为[需要的]成本将远高于实际利润，”他说。

But Chun thinks attracting women volunteers is doable if the pay is attractive enough.

“If a solder is paid $2,000 [per month], that’s a legitimate job. So, a woman would say, well I want to be able to have that job for $2,000. Because for the same job, she’d probably be paid $1,500 in the outside world,” he said.

但Chun认为，如果报酬足够有吸引力，吸引女性志愿者是可行的。

“如果一名焊工[每月]的工资为 2,000 美元，那么这就是一份合法的工作。所以，一个女人会说，好吧，我希望能够以 2,000 美元的价格得到这份工作。因为同样的工作，她在外界可能会得到 1,500 美元，”他说。

For its part, the Defense Ministry says increasing the number of women who serve is a possibility among other ideas.

But there are no timelines for changes and time may be something South Korea doesn’t have much of.

Earlier this month, Statistics Korea reported that the record low birth rate is expected to drop even further in the next two years, to 0.65 births per woman in 2025.

国防部则表示，增加女性服役人数是一种可能的想法。

但目前还没有改变的时间表，而韩国可能没有太多时间。

本月早些时候，韩国统计局报告称，创纪录的低出生率预计在未来两年内进一步下降，到 2025 年每名妇女生育 0.65 名孩子。